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對市場而言，降息猶如毒品。它們能讓人興奮，但也能導致依賴。就像癮君子一樣，市場需要越來越大的劑量，才能達到同樣的效果。
for the markets, rate cuts are like a drug. they can inspire euphoria, but can also induce dependency. markets, like addicts, need bigger and bigger doses to get the same effect.
這就爲美聯儲(fed)圈定了市場可能會有的症狀。今天，美聯儲將開會決定貨幣政策。當它今年9月降息50個基點時，曾引發市場大幅上揚。但是，由於10月僅降息25個基點，導致市場故態復萌：美國股市下跌，信貸再次緊縮。
this has framed the market’s prognosis for the federal reserve, which today meets to decide on monetary policy. when it cut by 50 basis points in september, it sparked a huge rally. but cutting by only 25bp in october prompted a relapse, as us stocks fell and credit tightened once more.
由於美聯儲官員承認流動性緊縮有所加劇，交易員猜測會出現經濟衰退，因此，市場認爲美聯儲將再次降息50個基點。這引發了最近的上漲。不過，這種猜測正在漸漸降溫：期貨價格顯示市場預計降息25個基點、而非50個基點。
with fed governors admitting that the liquidity squeeze had intensified and traders betting on a recession, markets decided that another 50bp cut must be forthcoming. that sparked the latest rally. but that speculation is dimming: futures are pricing a cut of 25bp not 50bp.
爲什麼呢?各國央行上週聽起來還很強硬。英國央行(bank of england)降低了利率，但發出了通脹警告。按兵不動的歐洲央行(european central bank)聽起來更像要加息，而不是降息。
why? central banks sounded hawkish last week. the bank of england cut the bank rate but warned on inflation, and the european central bank, which was on hold, sounded closer to raising rates than cutting them.
然而，最重要的是就業數據。美聯儲受命實現完全就業，因此，糟糕的就業數據可以爲大幅降息提供很好的'藉口。
most important, however, is employment data. the fed is mandated to pursue full employment, so bad jobs numbers provide great cover for a big rate cut.
上週五公佈的非農就業數據無法提供這個藉口。就業人數增加了9.4萬人，高於此前預測的8萬人。這樣的數據顯示，經濟沒有滑入衰退區間。通過調查家庭而非調查企業彙編的家庭調查甚至顯示，就業增速還略有上揚。
last friday’s non-farm payrolls did not provide it. the number employed rose by 94,000, compared with forecasts of 80,000. this data refuses to slip into recession territory. the household survey, compiled by polling households rather than companies, even shows jobs growth picking up slightly.
美聯儲可以依據這個數據做出診斷嗎?追蹤企業稅項撥備的公司警告稱，這種就業增長似乎已經停止。 can the fed rest its diagnosis on this data? firms tracking the money companies withhold for tax purposes warn that job growth seems to have stopped.
不過，美聯儲並不想在市場上誘導“癮君子文化”，也不想表現出自己害怕經濟衰退。看起來，美聯儲最可能開具的藥方是：聯邦基金利率降低25個基點，並可能更大幅度降低其貸款給各銀行所依據的較高的貼現率。
but the fed does not want to induce a dependency culture in the markets, and it does not want to signal that it is scared of a recession. a 25bp cut in the fed funds rate, possibly with a steeper cut to the higher discount rate, at which it lends to banks, looks the most likely prescription.
part 2女巫的超前思維
親愛的經濟學家：
dear economist,
有一個關於古羅馬末代君王塔爾坎(tarquin)的傳說。一位老女巫走到塔爾坎面前，提出以高昂的價格賣給他9本預言書。塔爾坎對這一提議不以爲然。女巫燒燬了其中的3本書，然後提出以原價賣給他剩下的6本。塔爾坎再次拒絕了。
there is a legend about the last king of the romans, tarquin. an old witch came to tarquin, and offered to sell him nine books of prophecy at an exorbitant price. tarquin laughed at the offer. the witch burned three of the books, and then offered to sell him the remaining six for the original price. tarquin refused again.
女巫又燒燬了3本，然後同樣以最初9本的價格向塔爾坎出售剩下的3本。這一次，塔爾坎擔心自己可能會錯失一些寶貴的東西，於是以女巫索要的價格買下了剩餘3本書。這反映了什麼樣的需求曲線呢?
the witch burned three more books and offered to sell tarquin the three books that were left for the original price that she had demanded for nine. this time tarquin was scared that he might be losing something precious, and bought the remaining three books for the price that the witch asked. what sort of demand curve is that?
克里斯o麥克馬洪(chris mcmahon)通過電子郵件發送
chris mcmahon, by e-mail
親愛的麥克馬洪：
dear mr mcmahon,
忘掉需求曲線吧;這是一個關於經濟盈餘分配的兩方談判。塔爾坎始終願意出高價，但同時希望能夠還價。女預言家("女巫"聽上去讓人不太舒服)則用限制供應的方法來應對，意在推升價格。
forget the demand curve; this is a two-player negotiation over the division of economic surplus. tarquin was always willing to pay a high price but hoped to get a bargain. the sibyl ("witch" is such an uncouth label) responded with a supply constriction designed to drive up the price.
塔爾坎可能會認爲，這個女預言家只有一位競爭性買家，如果每位買家都只想要3本書的話，這將形成供過於求的局面。而一旦出現兩位買家只有3本書可買的情況，塔爾坎明白，他正面臨嚴峻的局面，因而搶先報出了價格。
tarquin might have thought that the sibyl had just one rival buyer, and if each buyer wanted only one trilogy, that would be a supply glut. once there was only one trilogy available for two buyers, tarquin knew he was in a serious auction and made a pre-emptive offer.
還有一種可能性是，女預言家正在解決一個所謂的持久壟斷的問題。塔爾坎知道，女預言家可能會以高價向他出售3本書，然後再回頭以低價出售另外3本或6本。而通過燒燬6本書，女預言家讓自己能夠提出一個真正要不要隨你的出價。這是一種超前思維，但話說回來，她本來就是在推銷預言。
another possibility is that the sibyl was dealing with the so- called durable monopoly problem. tarquin knew that the sibyl might sell him an expensive trilogy, and then come back later with a cut- price offer to buy a second or third. by destroying two trilogies, the sibyl enabled herself to make a credible, take-it-or-leave-it offer. forward-thinking stuff, but then, she was flogging prophecies.
