1.小島舉辦足球賽
>>> 本月原始
V1.講的是一個B country, five yrs ago, host 了一個soccer體育盛事，結果tourists數量激增25%，帶來了經濟增長。現在B國又想要發展經濟吸引遊客，就想着再開一個international competition，覺得遊客還會再來，再獲得成功。
>>> 考古
V3 是說一個小島五年前舉行過一場足球賽,在接下來的幾年裏面旅遊人數增加了 25%, 所 以 arguer 認爲要再舉行一場盛大的 sporting event,這一定能促進旅遊發展而且對小島的 經濟有好處!!!
1. 足球賽和旅遊人數增加之間不一定有因果; 2. 旅遊人數增加是因爲別的原因; 3. 幾年 前的和現在的情況不一樣; 4.舉辦 event 的 cost 未知,不一定 benefit 經濟。
V5 B 城市 host events 的 argument 是一個 office 的官員寫給貌似旅遊部門的 memo,主 要內容是因爲 B 城市(覺得好像翻譯應該是巴西吧)在 5 年前 hosted a major soccer competition. 然後在隨後的三年裏 the number of tourists increased 25%。所以他們向 該部門建議,host another sport event 來吸引遊客,然後就能夠通過吸引更多的遊客來 提高該市的經濟了。
>>> 參考思路
1. 時地全等:五年前舉行過一次足球賽繼而接下來的幾年裏面旅遊人數增加 25%,但是這 並不代表現在還能吸引遊客。舉例可以說全球經濟不好,旅遊的人數可能會減少,或者當地 治安不佳,旅客反而減少了。
2. 錯誤因果:辦足球賽和旅遊人數上升這兩個事件沒有必然的因果關係,有可能旅遊人數 上升是因爲其他因素,例如這個小島開發了新的旅遊項目從而吸引了更多顧客。
3. 無關假設:舉辦盛大的 sporting event 並不一定能帶來客觀的經濟效益,儘管有這個可 能性,但是如果舉辦活動的 cost 很高,賺得的錢無法 cover 很高的 cost 也同樣不可行。
2. Citrus fruit
V1.作文是 citrus fruit那個，價格在11年裏5 cents漲到30 cents，但是隻有一年是天氣不好，所以種植者需要爲如此excessive的漲價負責。。好像之前有看到過，反正不難啦
>>> 參考思路
1. 因果關係：種植者擡價並不是唯一影響因素，可能還有環境保護、加工價格上升、人力成本上升，或者通貨膨脹等因素。Monetary inflation, increased distribution and labor costs, or alterations in supply and demand conditions the growers’ desire for increased profits.
2. 無根據假設：天氣好，所以果樹的產量一定高。The editorial rests on a unconvincing assumption that the bad weather in only one of these last eleven years leads to the yield’s reduction in citrus fruit.
3. 錯誤類比：檸檬和橘類水果類比是否正確;或者說，檸檬有其特殊性，譬如檸檬都是進口的，比較貴，因此不具有可比性。
>>> 參考範文
In this editorial the author argues for the imposition of strict pricing regulations in order to prevent citrus growers from continued inflation of prices of citrus fruit. The need for such regulation is supported by the author’s contention that citrus growers have been unnecessarily raising prices of citrus fruit in the past. The evidence for this allegation is the fact that the price of lemons at Megamart has increased from 15 cents per pound to over a dollar a pound during the preceding 11-year period. The author maintains that this increase is unjustifiable because weather conditions have been favorable to citrus production in all but one of those years. This argument is flawed for several reasons.
First and foremost, the author assumes that the only factor that influences the price of citrus fruit is the weather. Other factors such as monetary inflation, increased distribution and labor costs, or alterations in supply an demand conditions are completely ignored as possible sources for the increase. The charge that citrus growers have unnecessarily raised prices can be sustained only if these and other possible factors can be completely ruled out as contributing to the price increases. Since the author fails to address these factors, the recommendation calling for strict pricing regulations can be dismissed out of hand as frivolous.
Second, the author assumes that the only way to combat increased prices is through government intervention. In a free enterprise system many other means of affecting the pricing of goods are available. For example, boycotting a product and thereby influencing supply and demand conditions of the commodity is an effective means of influencing the price of the product. In a free market economy the call for price regulation by the government should occur only when all other means to rectify the problem have been exhausted.
In conclusion, the author’s argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the argument it would be necessary to show that the only factor influencing the price increases is the growers’ desire for increased profits.
3.奢侈化妝品公司
>>> 本月原始
V1.說一個叫Kalloni的做cosmetic product的公司CEO講，公司在Europe的業績很好，但是在the US就不好。於是他就提出說要partner with Mega-Beauty，因爲Mega有unparalled distribution network，這樣之後能提高他們的long-term profitability。 提好critique的吧，我寫的一個是沒有證據表明在US業績不好和distribution有關，再一個就是沒有說明Mega怎麼能幫助他們了。
>>> 考古
V1
一個歐洲的奢侈化妝品Kalloni公司的CEO說，丫們的Luxury的產品雖然不錯一直打不進美國市場。慎重考慮之後丫推薦和美國的一個叫做Mega Beauty的大型經銷商合作。Mega Beauty是一個擁有20多種discount低價/廉價化妝品牌的大型經銷商。CEO說合作之後相信能打開市場增加銷量，並且對公司Long-term的Growth和profitability有幫助 。 我已經把我覺得可以攻擊的點標出來了= =
V2
Kallni還是Kallon公司的那個，這個公司的C神馬luxury product(覺得這裏是一個分析點結合後面的美國分銷商)是have had been well known in Europe, but in the U.S. we have had difficulty selling 還是 getting market, 然後ceo建議，經過 careful consideration， 美國的'distributor 是個不錯的合作對象，哦名字是Mega-Beauty 神馬(記得住是因爲這邊的彩票也叫Mega)，M公司怎麼20 national discount brand，而且has over 1500 discount store，與M 的agreement能夠讓K公司get access to the distribution network that 什麼 整個industry, 然後這個agreement可以給K公司long term growth 和 profitability。
V3
AWA一個歐洲的small，luxury corporate的ceo寫了一個memo說和mega-beauty，一個美國distributor聯合可以解決一直停滯不前的美國市場。並且可以earn profit和long-term interest。這個distributor和20個discount brand做，在美國有1500家門店。
>>> 參考思路
1.無理由假設：奢飾化妝品和低端化妝品的受衆不同，銷售方法也不同，不能認爲兩者的合作可以促進高端化妝品的銷售。有可能高端化妝品與低端產品合作之後，影響高端產品在消費者心目中的形象，從而影響銷售量。
2.時地全等:從現在的發展情況無法推出未來的發展趨勢，所以說兩者的合作會對公司長期發展有幫助的說法是錯誤的。
3.因果關係——忽略它因：影響利潤的因素很多，還包括生產成本，與meg beauty合作的成本等，不能簡單認爲兩者合作就一定對未來的利潤有幫助。
