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你也許會認爲，如果說有一件事經濟學家應該能告訴你如何去做，那就是在拍賣網站eBay上成功登記拍賣物品。畢竟，拍賣理論家在這行享有盛名;其中一位拍賣理論家蘇珊o阿西(Susan Athey)在今年4月贏得了約翰o貝茨o克拉克(John Bates Clark)經濟學獎章。(克拉克獎章獲得者還有保羅o薩繆爾森(Paul Samuelson)、約瑟夫o斯蒂格利茨(Joseph Stiglitz)和史蒂文o萊維特(Steven Levitt)，比諾貝爾獎(Nobel)獲獎者還要罕見。)
You might think that if there's one thing an economist should be able to tell you how to do, it's successfully list an item on the auction website eBay. Auction theorists are, after all, celebrated in the profession; one of them, Susan Athey, won the John Bates Clark medal in April. (Clark medallists, who include Paul Samuelson, Joseph Stiglitz and Steven Levitt, are scarcer than Nobel laureates.)
然而，儘管拍賣理論已經很發達，但其預測容易受到現實中一些波瀾的影響。比如說，標準經濟學假設人是理性的，這種假設通常是對的：在啤酒價格上漲時，多數人都會少喝一些啤酒。不過，拍賣要求有 "如果他認爲她認爲我認爲他那麼認爲"的推理鏈條，而這種鏈條往往存在薄弱環節。如果任何出價方有任何理由懷疑其他出價方是不理性的，那麼，這些環節就會輕易斷裂。
Yet although the theory of auctions is well-developed, its predictions are sensitive to wrinkles in reality. For example, the standard economic assumption that people are rational is usually a good one: when the price of beer rises, most people drink less beer. But auctions require "if he thinks that she thinks that I think that he thinks" chains of reasoning that tend to have weak links. Those links can easily break if any bidder has any reason to suspect that any other bidder is irrational.
另一個理論難題是進入拍賣。多數拍賣理論家假定有固定人數的拍賣方存在，他們全都準備好了要出價。不過，雖然經濟學家可以假設出價方存在，eBay的賣方卻不得不去吸引這些人。
Another theoretical conundrum is entry to the auction. Most auction theorists assume a fixed number of bidders, all poised and ready to bid. But while economists can assume bidders into existence, eBay sellers have to go out and hook them.
這不是拍賣理論的一個微小疏忽。爲移動電話運營商舉行的大規模 "3G"拍賣背後的經濟學家--保羅o克倫佩雷爾(Paul Klemperer)已經表明，一場拍賣中看似微不足道的特點可能會讓出價方卻步，造成巨大(和災難性的)影響。出於這些和其它原因，明智的拍賣理論家在沒有充分了解整個背景的情況下，會避免預測某個具體的拍賣計劃會有什麼效果。
This is no minor oversight of auction theory. Paul Klemperer, one of the economists behind the massive "3G" auctions for mobile phone operators, has shown that trivial-seeming features of an auction can have big (and disastrous) effects by repelling bidders. For these reasons and others, wise auction theorists would avoid predicting how a specific auction design will work without knowing much more about the context.
part 2The number of US students going to graduate school for science and engineering hit an all-time high in 2005, offering a glimmer of hope to policymakers and business chiefs who have lamented that Americans are not interested in science.
美國國家科學基金會(National Science Foundation)的最新調查顯示，入讀科學與工程研究生課程的美國公民和永久性居民人數增長了2%，達到創紀錄的33.955萬人。
A new survey conducted by the National Science Foundation shows that enrolment of US citizens and permanent residents in science and engineering graduate programmes increased 2 per cent, to a record 339,550.
調查還顯示，繼前3年下降之後，今年外國學生的入學率首次增長4%。不過，就讀這些學科的外國學生總數下降3%，爲連續第二年下降。
The survey also showed a 4 per cent rise in first-time enrolments by foreign students, following three years of decline. However, total enrolment of foreign students in those subjects dropped 3 per cent - the second year in a row with a decline.
美國科學促進會(American Association for the Advancement of Science)研發預算及政策項目主管Kei Koizumi表示，此次調查的結果 "喜憂參半"。
Kei Koizumi, the director of the R &D budget and policy programme at the American Association for the Advancement of Science, called the survey's findings "mixed".
"多數決策者表示，好消息是，攻讀科學與工程專業的美國人似乎越來越多，"他表示。"但外國學生數量下降，不管是因爲實際存在或人們感覺中的`簽證問題，還是因爲學生髮現在其它國家讀書更具吸引力，這都(令人沮喪)。"
"The good news, according to most policymakers, is that it appears Americans are going into science and engineering in greater numbers," he said. "But the drop in foreign students - whether it's because of real or perceived visa problems, or because students find it more attractive to study in other nations - is not as [encouraging]."
911恐怖襲擊後，美國國務院對外國學生實施限制，此後，來自國際學生的申請數量有所下降。
Applications from international students fell after the State Department imposed restrictions on foreign students in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks.
軟件公司甲骨文(Oracle)主管政府及公共事務的副總裁羅伯特o霍夫曼(Robert Hoffman)表示： "(美國的)大學院校能否招到全世界頂尖的人才，唯一最大的挑戰在於我們的移民體系。"
"The single biggest challenge for colleges and universities being able to recruit top talent from around the world is our immigration system," said Robert Hoffman, the vice-president of government and public affairs at Oracle, the software company.
"該體系對招生工作來說是個障礙。它所表達的意思是：你或許能在美國大學裏獲得一流教育，但你畢業後可能無法在美國公司裏找到一份好工作。"
"The system is working as a barrier to recruitment. It's saying: you might be able to get a top-flight education at a US university but you might not be able to get a top-flight job at a US company after you graduate."
調查發現，工程專業的入讀學生總數下降2.5%，在很大程度上是因爲外國學生數量的減少，但入讀數學和物理學專業的學生總數小幅上升。入讀上述三門學科的美國公民人數有所上升，但每門學科的學生增幅不足1%。
Total engineering enrolments fell by 2.5 per cent, largely because of a decline in foreign students, but total enrolments in mathematics and the physical sciences rose slightly, according to the survey. Enrolment of US citizens increased in all three categories but by less than 1 per cent in each.
商業圓桌會議(Business Roundtable)的教育及就業政策主管蘇珊o崔曼(Susan Traiman)表示，她感到擔憂的是，隨着英國和澳大利亞等其它國家紛紛提高自己在研究生教育方面的投資，併發起招募國內外優秀學生的攻勢，美國研究生院正失去其在吸引外國最優秀人才方面的優勢。
Susan Traiman, the director of education and workforce policy at the Business Roundtable, said she was concerned that US graduate schools were losing their edge in attracting the most talented foreign students, as other countries, such as the UK and Australia, boosted their investment in graduate education and embarked on campaigns to recruit top domestic and international students.
她表示： "這些數字似乎表明，目前頂尖人才有更多的選擇。"
"What these numbers seem to be saying is that top talent has many more options now," she said.
"如果沒有數量足夠的美國學生進入這些領域，同時如果沒有外國人才來填補這些空白，這將有損美國的創新能力--而這正是美國競爭力的根本所在。"
"If we don't have enough Americans going into these fields, and if we don't have the foreign talent to fill the gaps, it jeopardises US innovation - and that is the underpinning of American competitiveness."
